Pennsylvania cattle producers are joining other beef industry leaders speaking out against President Trump’s effort to lower beef prices.
With the cost of ground beef at an all time high, Trump is allowing 300,000 metric tons of lean beef trimmings to enter the United States over the next three months, at a reduced tariff rate, and sold at 25% below market prices.
“It makes basically no sense,” said Bill Devore, who runs a cattle farm in Washington County and is president of the Pennsylvania Cattlemen’s Association, which represents 11,000 cattle and dairy producers statewide.
Devore noted that this is an election-time policy, but he doubts that American consumers will see much price difference.
“It’s like a very quick band-aid for a month or two, but it’ll just go back up,” he said. “But it’s going to affect the American farmer in the long run; it’s going to hurt.”
Beef prices at the supermarket are up in part because consumer demand has been high, according to Becca Weir, assistant professor of Agricultural Economics at Penn State University. At the same time, inventory is down, “There’s less cows in the beef herd,” she said. “It’s the lowest we’ve had in over 30 years.”
The cattle industry is working to increase herds, but it takes 3 to 4 years to raise a calf to full-grown for market. Producers have faced rising fuel and fertilizer costs and drought in recent years. “When there’s drought, there’s less feed,” Weir said.
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Currently, the U.S. imports 417 million pounds of beef trimmings per month, she said. Weir calculates that Trump’s policy will bring an additional 220 million pounds per month. But she doesn’t know how that will affect prices at the supermarket.
“Until you have a crystal ball, I think there’s a lot of uncertainty and a lot of moving pieces that it’s hard to really parse out how each of the different shocks or different market implications are going to shake out,” she said.
Fall is an important time for cattle farmers to make decisions on which cows to sell and which to keep for new production. Cattle farmer Tommy Nagle, who is president of the Pennsylvania Farm Bureau, said Trump’s new beef import policy is throwing a wrench into the price farmers can expect to get for their cattle.
“If the market falls rapidly, it’s going to put them in a very bad situation. They’re gonna have cattle that they’re not going to be able to break even on, and lose money,” he said. “So it could require some people that unfortunately aren’t going to be able to stay in business.”
Nagle worries that could lead to the closure of some of Pennsylvania’s cattle farms, reducing the local meat supply long-term.
“Once they start down that road of liquidating and getting out of the business, the problem is no one is really there to replace that business.”
Starting September 1, the U.S. will begin importing the discounted beef trimmings.
