Forecasts for scorching temperatures across the Mid-Atlantic this summer could result in a higher-than-usual demand for electricity — at a time when federal regulators are warning that the margins between supply and demand are shrinking.
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s 2025 Summer Assessment of electricity reliability from June through September says while all areas of the country will have enough supply, regional electric grids could be stressed by rising temperatures and a demand that is expected to outpace the previous four summers.
While FERC’s annual assessment anticipates an adequate supply of electricity under normal conditions, Chairman Mark Christie said the loss of available electricity is happening “at a pace that is not sustainable and we are not adding sufficient equivalent generation capacity.”
The Mid-Atlantic grid operator PJM Interconnection, which coordinates the transmission of electricity for 67 million commercial and residential customers in all or parts of 13 states and Washington D.C., recently announced that while it expects to have enough supply to meet demand this summer, for the first time, its supply may fall short in an “extreme planning scenario.” The need for more than 166,000 megawatts of electricity would tip the balance, which is enough to power about 133 million homes.
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Demand from AI, data centers
But the problem isn’t simply individuals cranking up the A/C.
The biggest increase in demand comes from the enormous amount of energy required to power artificial intelligence and data centers, said Dave Souder, PJM Interconnection’s executive director of systems operations.
“We’re seeing a lot of electrification and or data center loads, with all the AI and computer requirements,” Souder said. “We’re seeing less capacity. We’re seeing generators retire before we have enough replacement generation come online.”
Souder said many of those retirements are coal plants. And while new solar and wind sources are increasing, they haven’t kept pace.
Critics say PJM has stalled on getting new clean energy sources onto the grid, the lack of which could cause giant price hikes. This led Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro to sue PJM last year, which resulted in an agreement to cap rate increases beginning in 2026.
Souder pushed back against this criticism, saying there is about 45,000 MW of new energy approved, some of it renewable.
“We’re just waiting for those resources to be built,” Souder said. “So they can build, they have the authority to build. They’re just running into issues with respect to supply chain, permitting, financing.”
Gas and nuclear added to the grid
Additionally, PJM announced 51 new projects in May that would add 9,300 MW of generation; half are natural gas and a third is nuclear.
FERC’s assessment also predicts the cause of higher electricity bills this summer will be due in part to the rising cost of natural gas.
Souder said he expects the peak load to hit 154,000 MW. Should the demand top 166,000 MW, PJM could tap its network of users that have agreed to reduce their usage in exchange for payment. Known as “demand response,” the grid operator said it has contracts with mostly large consumers, which when implemented could add capacity of up to 7,900 MW, enough to prevent rolling power outages.
